Topic Tuesday #58 2013/08/27 - "Water Clock Running Dry"

Topic Tuesday #58 2013/08/27 - "Water Clock Running Dry"

To return to the core of the 'Can We Fix It?' mission, we have a problem and we need a solution (no pun intended since it's about water). In the United States there is a vast water reserve that is being depleted at an unsustainable rate. The High Plains Aquifer lies beneath eight states from South Dakota to Texas and supplies 30 percent of the nations irrigated groundwater (it is also a key source of potable drinking water in the region). A new study, out of Kansas State University and published online Monday in the journal 'Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences', has concluded that it will be depleted within 50 years at the current usage rate. David Steward (professor of civil engineering at KSU) said, "It would take an average of 500 to 1,300 years to completely refill the High Plains Aquifer."
This is a complex problem with implications that are stupefying. Bridget Scanlon (Sr. research scientist and lead of 'the Sustainable Water Resources Program' at the University of Texas - Austin) had a few comments about the study.
"We know the aquifer is being depleted, but trying to project long-term is very difficult, because there are climate issues and social aspects that have to be included. Projections are so difficult because I think we're clueless about a lot of things, like extreme weather events. Farmers are trying to make a living, and they're responding to economics," she explained. "Asking them to drastically reduce water might be like asking me to retire now because there are so many unemployed people. This is a very nice study, but we really need to address droughts and socioeconomic issues, and other approaches to figure out the problem, beyond the technical. If we don't know what we're doing, are we just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic?"
It's a valid response. It is not dismissive, but urging more inclusion of other factors for strategy, which is a secondary target diverting from the crux of the matter. We are going to run out of water. It's not a matter of 'if'; it's a matter of 'when'.
What can we do? We can continue rationing water supplies. We can improve irrigation methodologies and technologies. At some point, we will need to harvest water from other resources. Desalination and pipelining it to the nation's breadbasket to keep food production going.
What happens when a town runs out of water? The people leave. It's just that simple. If you can't feed the livestock and crops with enough water, they wither and die. Then the farmers leave, and there is a food shortage and then costs rise as demand is shifted. Economies are drastically affected in our global community by a little thing like a drought. It is a fragile situation and deserves attention while there is still a resource to utilize. And... I haven't touched on "Fracking" yet.
Any ideas? Can We Fix It?

Topic Tuesday #53 2013/07/23 - "Climate Cycles"

Topic Tuesday #53 2013/07/23 - "Climate Cycles"

If we are to be skeptical and honest with ourselves about the world we live in, we need facts. LOTS of facts.
I am going to highlight some facts that are not often brought to the table when discussing climate change. I am only going to present the items. In general this is all from the field of applied mathematics and earth sciences known as Geodesy.

Earth's Path

The earth's orbit is not circular. It is elliptical, an oval.
We are closest to the Sun around January at a distance of 147,098,290 kilometres (91,402,640 mi) [0.98329134 AU] and farthest from the Sun around July at 152,098,232 kilometres (94,509,460 mi) [1.01671388 AU] Nearly 3 million miles difference.

The reason we have seasons is due to the Earth's axial tilt. The Earth wobbles a little. Over 41,000 years, the tilt fluctuates from 22 to 24.4. The average tilt today is about 23.5 degrees, roughly in the middle of a diminishing tilt trend. The more perpendicular the planet to the Sun, the more uniform the heating, and the higher the average temperatures. Based on the current figures, the Earth will be at 22.6 degrees tilt in 8,800 years.
Rotation (green), precession (blue) and nutation in obliquity (red)
The tilt undergoes an irregular motion known as nutation with a period of 18.6 years.
The orientation (rather than the angle)of the axis changes over time following a circle with a cycle of 25,800 years. This is the determining factor between sidereal and tropical years.
These changes are known as Axial precession.

The poles also migrate (Polar Motion).  The collective term for all the factors in its movement is "quasiperiodic motion". There are several periodic affects. A circular motion occurs annually while others have longer periods, one of which is the Chandler wobble with a 14 year cycle but a period of 435 days.
The rotational velocity along the axis is variable. The phenomenon is known as the length-of-day variation. Think of an ice skater, spinning with their arms in tight and then to stop they put their arms out. As the earth bulges out in the middle more, be it from continental drift or from glacier melt raising the sea level, the planet will spin slower, increasing the day.

Temporal Changes - Surface changes, and things over time.
  • Plate Tectonics
  • Episodic fault-line events.
  • Tidal shifts
  • Postglacial land uplift
  • Temperature cycles: Ice age
Human interaction
  • Material extraction
  • Material relocation
  • Teraforming
  • Directed phase change of material. Fuel consumption
There are thousands, if not millions, of data points that go into climate science, and I don't want to blowup a single thread with all of them. Some of them, nay, most of them are deserving of a day in the sun and I will revisit them in time. Knowledge of your current situation is not enough to determine any kind of model for the future. We must study the rich past.
I hope that this has opened your eyes a little to the nature of our home planet. It is ever changing. Dynamic. Chaotic. Fragile- but only for us. It will go on spinning.  The thing to remember is perspective.

"Let's be clear. The planet is not in jeopardy. We are in jeopardy. We haven't got the power to destroy the planet - or to save it. But we might have the power to save ourselves." - Ian Malcom - Jurassic Park