ORLY-EP0116a - Lamenting Istanbul and the Brexit
Welcome to ORLYRADIO #116A recorded Friday July 1st, 2016 - where we dismantle the current events for your edutainment through mostly rational conversations that make you go ‘Oh Really’! I’m your host Andy Cowen, with my usual suspect, Daniel Atherton.
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Ataturk international airport in Istanbul was attacked on the 28th and at least 42 were killed with 239 injured by a trio of suicide bombers. The bastards that blew themselves up were identified thursday as a Russian national, an Uzbek citizen, and another from Kyrgyzstan. Turkey's Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said initial indications suggested Daesh was responsible for the attack. Turkey has been struck by a series of deadly attacks this year — including attacks in Istanbul in January and February, attacks in both Istanbul and Ankara in March, and an attack targeting police in Istanbul earlier this month. Some of those attacks have been claimed by Kurdish militants; others have been attributed to the Islamic State.” http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/06/29/483983313/death-toll-in-istanbul-airport-attack-rises-to-41
Brexit - Follow the money.
UK Independence Party Leader Admits His Bold Brexit Claim Was a "Mistake" http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/06/nigel-farage-admits-his-bold-brexit-claim-was-mistake
June 24 (Reuters) - Global stock markets lost about $2 trillion in value on Friday after Britain voted to leave the European Union, while sterling suffered a record one-day plunge to a 31-year low and money poured into safe-haven gold and government bonds
The shockwaves affected all asset classes and regions.
The safe-haven yen jumped 3.8 percent to 102.36 per dollar , having been as low as 106.81. The dollar's peak decline of 4 percent was the largest since 1998.
Emerging market currencies across Asia and eastern Europe and South Africa's rand all buckled on fears that investors could pull out. Poland's zloty slumped 4.7 percent.
Europe's safety play, the 10-year German government bond, surged, with yields tumbling back into negative territory and a new record low.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid almost 3.4 percent. Tokyo's Nikkei had its worst fall since 2011, down 7.9 percent.
Investors stampeded into low-risk sovereign bonds, with U.S. 10-year notes up around 1.5 points in price to yield 1.5718 percent. Earlier, the yield dipped to 1.406 percent.
The rally even extended to UK bonds, despite a warning from ratings agency Standard & Poor's that it was likely to downgrade Britain's triple-A credit rating if it left the EU. Yields on benchmark 10-year gilts fell 27 basis points to 1.096 pct.
Across the Atlantic, investors were pricing in less chance of another hike in U.S. interest rates given the Federal Reserve had cited a British exit from the EU as one reason to be cautious on tightening.
The cost for Wall Street to fund dollar-based trades rose on Friday to the highest in nearly three months.
Oil prices slumped around 5 percent amid fears of a broader economic slowdown that could reduce demand. U.S. crude shed $2.51 to $47.60 a barrel while Brent fell 4.9 percent to $48.42.
Industrial metal copper sank 1.7 percent but gold leaped nearly 5 percent higher thanks to its perceived safe-haven status.
This Week in History:
1867 - Canadian Independence day. The autonomous Dominion of Canada, a confederation of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and the future provinces of Ontario and Quebec, is officially recognized by Great Britain with the passage of the British North America Act
1947 - “Mr. X” article appears in Foreign Affairs. State Department official George Kennan, using the pseudonym “Mr. X,” publishes an article entitled “The Sources of Soviet Conduct” in the July edition of Foreign Affairs. The article focused on Kennan’s call for a policy of containment toward the Soviet Union and established the foundation for much of America’s early Cold War foreign policy
1984 - PG-13 rating debuts. On this day in 1984, the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA), which oversees the voluntary rating system for movies, introduces a new rating, PG-13. Red Dawn, released August 10, 1984, becomes the first movie released with a PG-13 rating.
1997 - Hong Kong returns to China. At midnight on July 1, 1997, Hong Kong reverts back to Chinese rule in a ceremony attended by British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Prince Charles of Wales, Chinese President Jiang Zemin, and U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. A few thousand Hong Kongers protested the turnover, which was otherwise celebratory and peaceful.
2002 - Two planes collide over Germany. A Russian Tupolev 154 collides in midair with a Boeing 757 cargo plane over southern Germany on this day in 2002. The 69 passengers and crew on the Russian plane and the two-person cargo crew were all killed. The collision occurred even though each plane had TCAS (Traffic Collision Avoidance System) collision-avoidance equipment onboard and everything functioned correctly
-BREAK- Logical Fallacy
The moralistic fallacy is the opposite of the naturalistic fallacy. The naturalistic fallacy moves from descriptions of how things are to statements of how things ought to be, the moralistic fallacy does the reverse. The moralistic fallacy moves from statements about how things ought to be to statements about how things are; it assumes that the world is as it should be. This, sadly, is a fallacy; sometimes things aren’t as they ought to be.
Have you ever crossed a one-way street without looking in both directions? If you have, reasoning that people shouldn’t be driving the wrong way up a one way street so there’s no risk of being run over from that direction, then you’ve committed the moralistic fallacy. Sometimes things aren’t as they ought to be. Sometimes people drive in directions that they shouldn’t. The rules of the road don’t necessarily describe actual driving practices..
Earth has 2 moons now. http://gizmodo.com/earths-new-quasi-moon-will-stick-around-for-centuries-1782082812
Areas of Central Park are now more radioactive than 5 of the 6 Marshal Islands where the US tested nuclear weapons in the 1940’s. The most famous, the Bikini Island, is still at 184 millirems. Central Park clocked in at 100 millirems. http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/06/some-us-nuke-testing-sites-are-now-less-radioactive-central-park
"We can take someone’s memory - which is typically something internal and private - and we can pull it out from their brains," one of the team, neuroscientist Brice Kuhl, http://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-have-invented-a-mind-reading-machine-that-can-visualise-your-thoughts-kind-of
Artificially Intelligent Lawyer “Ross” Has Been Hired By Its First Official Law Firm http://futurism.com/artificially-intelligent-lawyer-ross-hired-first-official-law-firm/
Ross, “the world’s first artificially intelligent attorney” built on IBM’s cognitive computer Watson, was designed to read and understand language, postulate hypotheses when asked questions, research, and then generate responses (along with references and citations) to back up its conclusions. Ross also learns from experience, gaining speed and knowledge the more you interact with it.
“You ask your questions in plain English, as you would a colleague, and ROSS then reads through the entire body of law and returns a cited answer and topical readings from legislation, case law and secondary sources to get you up-to-speed quickly,” the website says. “In addition, ROSS monitors the law around the clock to notify you of new court decisions that can affect your case.”