Daniel and Andy discuss how Universal Basic Income can work and address some of the big bugaboos about it.
Read MoreORLY-EP0116a - Lamenting Istanbul and the Brexit
ORLY-EP0116a - Lamenting Istanbul and the Brexit
Welcome to ORLYRADIO #116A recorded Friday July 1st, 2016 - where we dismantle the current events for your edutainment through mostly rational conversations that make you go ‘Oh Really’! I’m your host Andy Cowen, with my usual suspect, Daniel Atherton.
Audience Feedback From Previous Shows:
We make mistakes. Please, if you find one, pause the podcast, and send us a note. orlyradiopodcast@gmail.com or phone it in 470-222-6759
Potpourri: Guests/Rants/Etc:
Turkey:
Ataturk international airport in Istanbul was attacked on the 28th and at least 42 were killed with 239 injured by a trio of suicide bombers. The bastards that blew themselves up were identified thursday as a Russian national, an Uzbek citizen, and another from Kyrgyzstan. Turkey's Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said initial indications suggested Daesh was responsible for the attack. Turkey has been struck by a series of deadly attacks this year — including attacks in Istanbul in January and February, attacks in both Istanbul and Ankara in March, and an attack targeting police in Istanbul earlier this month. Some of those attacks have been claimed by Kurdish militants; others have been attributed to the Islamic State.” http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/06/29/483983313/death-toll-in-istanbul-airport-attack-rises-to-41
http://aa.com.tr/en/todays-headlines/istanbul-airport-terror-attack-death-toll-rises-to-44/599383
Brexit - Follow the money.
UK Independence Party Leader Admits His Bold Brexit Claim Was a "Mistake" http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/06/nigel-farage-admits-his-bold-brexit-claim-was-mistake
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-markets-world-stocks-tumble-204403520.html
June 24 (Reuters) - Global stock markets lost about $2 trillion in value on Friday after Britain voted to leave the European Union, while sterling suffered a record one-day plunge to a 31-year low and money poured into safe-haven gold and government bonds
The shockwaves affected all asset classes and regions.
The safe-haven yen jumped 3.8 percent to 102.36 per dollar , having been as low as 106.81. The dollar's peak decline of 4 percent was the largest since 1998.
Emerging market currencies across Asia and eastern Europe and South Africa's rand all buckled on fears that investors could pull out. Poland's zloty slumped 4.7 percent.
Europe's safety play, the 10-year German government bond, surged, with yields tumbling back into negative territory and a new record low.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid almost 3.4 percent. Tokyo's Nikkei had its worst fall since 2011, down 7.9 percent.
Investors stampeded into low-risk sovereign bonds, with U.S. 10-year notes up around 1.5 points in price to yield 1.5718 percent. Earlier, the yield dipped to 1.406 percent.
The rally even extended to UK bonds, despite a warning from ratings agency Standard & Poor's that it was likely to downgrade Britain's triple-A credit rating if it left the EU. Yields on benchmark 10-year gilts fell 27 basis points to 1.096 pct.
Across the Atlantic, investors were pricing in less chance of another hike in U.S. interest rates given the Federal Reserve had cited a British exit from the EU as one reason to be cautious on tightening.
The cost for Wall Street to fund dollar-based trades rose on Friday to the highest in nearly three months.
Oil prices slumped around 5 percent amid fears of a broader economic slowdown that could reduce demand. U.S. crude shed $2.51 to $47.60 a barrel while Brent fell 4.9 percent to $48.42.
Industrial metal copper sank 1.7 percent but gold leaped nearly 5 percent higher thanks to its perceived safe-haven status.
This Week in History:
Sources: http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history
1867 - Canadian Independence day. The autonomous Dominion of Canada, a confederation of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and the future provinces of Ontario and Quebec, is officially recognized by Great Britain with the passage of the British North America Act
1947 - “Mr. X” article appears in Foreign Affairs. State Department official George Kennan, using the pseudonym “Mr. X,” publishes an article entitled “The Sources of Soviet Conduct” in the July edition of Foreign Affairs. The article focused on Kennan’s call for a policy of containment toward the Soviet Union and established the foundation for much of America’s early Cold War foreign policy
1984 - PG-13 rating debuts. On this day in 1984, the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA), which oversees the voluntary rating system for movies, introduces a new rating, PG-13. Red Dawn, released August 10, 1984, becomes the first movie released with a PG-13 rating.
1997 - Hong Kong returns to China. At midnight on July 1, 1997, Hong Kong reverts back to Chinese rule in a ceremony attended by British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Prince Charles of Wales, Chinese President Jiang Zemin, and U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. A few thousand Hong Kongers protested the turnover, which was otherwise celebratory and peaceful.
2002 - Two planes collide over Germany. A Russian Tupolev 154 collides in midair with a Boeing 757 cargo plane over southern Germany on this day in 2002. The 69 passengers and crew on the Russian plane and the two-person cargo crew were all killed. The collision occurred even though each plane had TCAS (Traffic Collision Avoidance System) collision-avoidance equipment onboard and everything functioned correctly
-BREAK- Logical Fallacy
http://www.logicalfallacies.info/relevance/moralistic/
Moralistic Fallacy
Explanation
The moralistic fallacy is the opposite of the naturalistic fallacy. The naturalistic fallacy moves from descriptions of how things are to statements of how things ought to be, the moralistic fallacy does the reverse. The moralistic fallacy moves from statements about how things ought to be to statements about how things are; it assumes that the world is as it should be. This, sadly, is a fallacy; sometimes things aren’t as they ought to be.
Examples
Have you ever crossed a one-way street without looking in both directions? If you have, reasoning that people shouldn’t be driving the wrong way up a one way street so there’s no risk of being run over from that direction, then you’ve committed the moralistic fallacy. Sometimes things aren’t as they ought to be. Sometimes people drive in directions that they shouldn’t. The rules of the road don’t necessarily describe actual driving practices..
-BREAK- Voicemail
Science Bitches!
Earth has 2 moons now. http://gizmodo.com/earths-new-quasi-moon-will-stick-around-for-centuries-1782082812
Areas of Central Park are now more radioactive than 5 of the 6 Marshal Islands where the US tested nuclear weapons in the 1940’s. The most famous, the Bikini Island, is still at 184 millirems. Central Park clocked in at 100 millirems. http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/06/some-us-nuke-testing-sites-are-now-less-radioactive-central-park
"We can take someone’s memory - which is typically something internal and private - and we can pull it out from their brains," one of the team, neuroscientist Brice Kuhl, http://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-have-invented-a-mind-reading-machine-that-can-visualise-your-thoughts-kind-of
Artificially Intelligent Lawyer “Ross” Has Been Hired By Its First Official Law Firm http://futurism.com/artificially-intelligent-lawyer-ross-hired-first-official-law-firm/
Ross, “the world’s first artificially intelligent attorney” built on IBM’s cognitive computer Watson, was designed to read and understand language, postulate hypotheses when asked questions, research, and then generate responses (along with references and citations) to back up its conclusions. Ross also learns from experience, gaining speed and knowledge the more you interact with it.
“You ask your questions in plain English, as you would a colleague, and ROSS then reads through the entire body of law and returns a cited answer and topical readings from legislation, case law and secondary sources to get you up-to-speed quickly,” the website says. “In addition, ROSS monitors the law around the clock to notify you of new court decisions that can affect your case.”
ORLY-EP0114B - New Normal
ORLY-EP0114B - New Normal
Welcome back to ORLYRADIO #114b recorded Friday JUNE 17th, 2016 - where we dismantle the current events for your edutainment through mostly rational conversations that make you go ‘Oh Really’! I’m your host Andy Cowen, with my usual suspects: Stephen Griffith and Daniel Atherton.
Science Bitches!
Four new element names are on the table http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/06/four-new-element-names-are-table
Law & Order:
-BREAK- Voicemail
Good Ideas:
Social media 'outstrips TV' as news source for young people http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-36528256
-BREAK- GSoW - PSA
Bad Ideas:
Personal Picks:
Stephen’s:
Fred’s: Stigma Tattoo Bar https://www.facebook.com/events/100393700391077/102361333527647/?notif_t=admin_plan_mall_activity¬if_id=1466051654296658
Daniel’s: http://www.orlandocitysc.com/
ORLY-EP0113A - Conspiracy Bias Epistemology & Breakfast of Champions
ORLY-EP0113A - Conspiracy Bias Epistemology & The Breakfast of Champions
Welcome to ORLYRADIO #113A recorded Friday JUNE 10th, 2016 - where we dismantle the current events for your edutainment through mostly rational conversations that make you go ‘Oh Really’! I’m your host Andy Cowen, with my usual suspect, Daniel Atherton.
Audience Feedback From Previous Shows:
We make mistakes. Please, if you find one, pause the podcast, and send us a note. orlyradiopodcast@gmail.com or phone it in 470-222-6759
Errata: From the mailbag:
Andy, I loved the coverage of the gunshot wound caulk gun. I had an insight that I think it's accurate. The conversation seemed to overlook a key element: clotting factor. See, my nephew has a mild bleeding disorder. He's not of royal lineage or anything, but it takes him about 20% longer than normal for a cut to seal up.
See, his specific condition is a lowered amount of a clotting factor that forms a web or lattice type structure around a wound, which catches the platelets. Once it catches enough to clog the lattice, it is sealed. I imagine this technology would work the same way. So it's not just the sponges swelling to fit the wound. It's also them catching the platelets to make a hemostatic seal.
Typically, this clotting factor will start forming around the edges of a wound, and build upon itself. That's why you want to pinch a wound closed until the bleeding stops, and you have to be so careful about it not reopening. This technology is perfect for large, deep wounds that aren't likely to seal up. It makes me ridiculously happy orlyish.
All the love,
Daniel Bible Pants Duncan
From one of our Patreon Supporters. Did Google manipulate search for Hillary? https://www.facebook.com/SourceFedNews/videos/1199514293432055/
Potpourri: Guests/Rants/Etc:
Confirmation Bias (http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases)
the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories.Herd mentality, or mob mentality, describes how people are influenced by their peers to adopt certain behaviors, follow trends, and/or purchase items. Examples of the herd mentality include stock market trends, superstition and home décor.
Bandwagon effect — the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink, crowd psychology, herd behaviour, and manias.
Illusion of control — the tendency for human beings to believe they can control or at least influence outcomes that they clearly cannot.
Reactance — the urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice.
A conspiracy is a secret plan to achieve some goal. Its members are known as conspirators. A conspiracy theory originally meant the theory pre-formed conclusion that an event or phenomenon was the result of conspiracy; however, from the mid-1960s onward, it is often used to denote ridiculous, misconceived, paranoid, unfounded, outlandish or irrational theories. One of the worst things about conspiracy theories is the fact they are almost airtight. Every debunking or piece of evidence against it will be viewed as an attempt to "misinform the public", and the lack of evidence for it is viewed as a government cover-up. Not everyone involved in a conspiracy necessarily knows all the details; in fact, sometimes none do.
This Week in History:
Canned from Fred
Logical Fallacy
http://www.logicalfallacies.info/presumption/complex-question/
Complex Question Fallacy
Explanation
The complex question fallacy is committed when a question is asked (a) that rests on a questionable assumption, and (b) to which all answers appear to endorse that assumption.
Examples
“Have you stopped beating your wife?”
This is a complex question because it presupposes that you used to beat your wife, a presupposition that either answer to the question appears to endorse.
“Are you going to admit that you’re wrong?”
Answering yes to this question is an admission of guilt. Answering no to the question implies that the accused accepts that he is in the wrong, but will not admit it. No room is left to protest one’s innocence. This is therefore a complex question, and a subtle false dilemma.